Publication 12 March 2026

Update on the Irish Steel Industry Q1 2026

Jim Power
Jim Power

Special Economics Advisor

Update on the Irish Steel Industry Q1 2026

Introduction

Irish Steel was founded in 2015 after the introduction of the Construction and Product Regulations (CPR). The founders of Irish Steel recognised at that stage that there was a major information deficit for steel fabricators around the new mandatory standards.

Irish Steel sees itself as the knowledge, expertise and connection hub for Ireland’s metal fabrication and manufacturing community.

The Vision of Irish steel is:

By making outstanding programmes and services available, our membership will participate and collectively benefit from an increase in excellence within the Irish metal fabrication and manufacturing industry’s community.’

The Mission of Irish Steel is:

We are dedicated to helping our members build more resilient and successful businesses by bringing industry stakeholders together to share knowledge and use their collective experiences for good during the time that we set the seeds for collaborative mindsets to become the daily norm amongst all members of our industry and community.’

The purpose of this regular newsletter commissioned by Irish Steel is to keep members informed about the key trends in the global and domestic economy that impact on the activities of Ireland’s metal fabrication and manufacturing community. The real theme of the first Irish Steel newsletter of 2026 is the unprecedented level of uncertainty that currently characterised the global geo-political and trading order.

In understanding what is happening in the Irish steel market, some influential factors need to be considered. Firstly, it is important to understand the key global trends in steel markets and the overall structure of the market. Secondly it is important to understand key trends in the global economy, particularly concerning growth dynamics, inflation, interest rates, tariff policies, and investment activity. Thirdly it is important to understand key trends in the Irish economy and the performance of sectors that generate activity for the membership of Irish Steel. Finally, it is important to understand the key issues influencing the business environment in which members of Irish steel operate.

The operating environment for the steel sector is challenging now. The key challenges for the sector include:

  • The very uncertain global economic outlook and particularly the damage to business confidence and investment intentions from the policy uncertainty being generated by the Trump administration. This is an evolving issue that changes from week to week.
  • Decarbonisation, and particularly CBAM.
  • Global overcapacity and the EU import response.
  • Volatile energy prices.
  • Volatile raw material prices.
  • Supply chain vulnerabilities, which are being exacerbated by tariffs and intense global geo-political and geo-economic uncertainty.
  • Continued labour market challenges, with skills shortages and upward pressure on wages a key characteristic of the labour market.
  • The evolution of AI and the global boom in AI investment.
  • The deep uncertainty about the global trading order; and the potential for a widespread and very damaging trade war. Despite previous agreements, the recent Greenland-related tariff threats by President Trump highlight just how uncertain and unpredictable the futural global trading environment is.
  • The generally elevated level of business costs.

In the edition we include an interview with Stephen Clarke, the CEO of the Profast Group, which is a member of Irish Steel.

Any feedback or suggestions for further topics or issues affecting your sector or business would be much appreciated.

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Section 1: Global Steel Market Trends

The steel industry plays a key role in economic growth and development. It is the backbone of construction, manufacturing, infrastructure development, transportation options, and the energy sector. It is a critical component of the building of the global green energy infrastructure which will dominate the global narrative over the coming years.

Global Demand

The global context for the steel industry is challenging due to an uncertain global economic backdrop; weakness in housing delivery; the intense uncertainty regarding tariffs, All and significant global geo-political volatility and uncertainty. These factors are combining to undermine business confidence and business investment.

The World Steel Association reports that in 2025, world crude steel production totalled 1,849 million tonnes, which is 2 per cent lower than 2024.

Table 1: Crude Steel Production by Top 10 Steel Producing Countries (2025)

COUNTRY MLN TONNES % CHANGE ON 2024
China 960.8 -4.4%
India 164.9 +10.4%
United States 82.0 +3.1%
Japan 80.7 -4.0%
Russia 67.8 -4.5%
South Korea 61.9 -2.8%
Turkiye 38.1 +3.3%
Germany 34.1 -8.6%
Brazil 33.3 -1.6%
Iran 31.8 +1.4%
Top 70 Countries 1,803.8 -2.0%

Source: The World Steel Association

The European Steel Association (EUROFER) forecasts that in 2025 apparent steel consumption is set to decline again, albeit more moderately than in previous years (-0.2 per cent, unchanged from its previous outlook). This will be driven by the expected—albeit difficult to quantify—impact of U.S. tariffs and the resulting trade-related uncertainty. In 2026, apparent steel consumption is projected to finally recover (+3 per cent, marginally revised from +3.1 per cent), conditional on a positive evolution of the industrial outlook and an easing of global tensions, both of which remain unpredictable.

The overall evolution of steel demand remains subject to very high uncertainty. No improvement in apparent steel consumption is expected before the first quarter of 2026, and consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.

Price Trends

Global steel prices spiked dramatically in the second half of 2020 as global supply chain problems impacted on supply. Between August 2020 and December 2021, the producer price of steel mill products iron and steel increased by 153.3 per cent. Between December 2021 and November 2025 prices declined by 35.2 per cent.

Figure 1: Producer Price Index by Commodity: Metals & Metal Products: Steel Mill Products

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

Steel rebar futures in January 2026 were 6.3 per cent were 6.3 per cent lower than the recent peak in July 2025. Prices are in a sideways range in recent months. Global steel production declined by 2 per cent in the first 11 months of 2025, with Chinese output down, and Indian output up by 10 per cent. The Indian authorities are favouring Indian steel producers, and the government is planning to increase steel production by 50 per cent by 2030.

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Section 2: The Global Economic Background

The first year of President Trump’s second term in office has been characterised by intense uncertainty and volatility, both from a geo-political and economic perspective. We have just passed the first anniversary of his inauguration and in that year, he has pursued a very aggressive policy agenda. From an economic perspective, the tariff policy platform has been of most consequence.

Tariff Situation

The policy of the US administration in relation to trade engendered an unprecedented level of uncertainty and volatility. To date, he has not delivered to the extent that he threatened, but the reality is that global trade is now subject to the highest level of tariffs in a long time. He uses the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic, with the most recent, being the threat to impose 10 per cent tariffs from 1st February on France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. If Denmark does not agree to hand over Greenland, he is threatening a further 15 per cent from 1st June. The EU is threatening to retaliate with its ‘Anti-Coercion Instrument’, which could see significant tariffs on US exports to the EU and other restrictions on trade in goods and services.

If the situation regarding Greenland escalates into an all-out trade war between the US and the EU, the economic consequences would be very negative for both regions.

Global Geo-Political Situation

On the global geo-political front, 2025 was a difficult and worrisome year.

  • The situation in Gaza and Ukraine has been very intense and dangerous.
  • The relationship between the US and the EU has been seriously fractured.
  • The US intervention in Venezuela has given rise to serious uncertainty about future US policy towards Greenland and other Latin American countries; and the role of Russia, China, and India, and the future relationship between those three powers has become very complicated.

In summary, the world has become much more fractured, polarised, and dangerous.

Global Economic Situation

Despite the heightened uncertainty, the global economic performance turned out better than expected in 2025.

Growth in the Euro Zone and the UK has been reasonable, although growth rates was still well below potential. The US economy out-performed Europe once again, but there were increasing signs of slowdown towards the end of the year, particularly in the labour market.

The main factors behind the more resilient global economic performance in 2025 include:

  • Strong AI-related investment.
  • Stable financial market conditions.
  • Lower official interest rates.
  • A front-loading of exports ahead of threatened tariffs.
  • Significant fiscal stimulus in several countries, but particularly in China, Germany and the US.

Inflation eased in the first half of the year but edged up modestly in most countries in the second half. Strong service sector inflation; higher food prices; and higher energy prices have all contributed. Labour markets softened somewhat, but labour markets everywhere are still quite tight, which is feeding into ongoing upward pressure on wages. This is a particular issue in the service sector.

Table 2: Inflation and Unemployment


ANNUAL INFLATION UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Euro Zone 1.9% (Dec) 6.3% (Nov)
Germany 1.8% (Dec) 6.3% (Dec)
France 0.8% (Dec) 7.7% (Sep)
Italy 1.2% (Dec) 5.7% (Nov)
Spain 2.9% (Dec) 10.5% (Sep)
Ireland 2.8% (Dec) 5.0% (Dec)
United Kingdom 3.4% (Dec) 5.1% (Nov)
United States 2.7% (Dec) 4.4% (Dec)
Japan 2.9% (Nov) 2.6% (Nov)
Canada 2.4% (Dec) 6.8% (Dec)
Australia 3.4% (Nov) 4.3% (Nov)
China 0.8% (Dec) 5.1% (Dec)

Source: National Statistical Agencies

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook for global growth is still shrouded in intense uncertainty. Table 3 shows the latest global outlook from the International Monetary Fund IMF). The IMF revised up its growth forecast for 2026 marginally. It recognised that the risks to the growth forecast are tilted to the downside. These risks include:

  • A revaluation of productivity growth expectations driven by the AI investment boom. This would result in a sharp decline in AI investment and an abrupt financial market correction.
  • A flare up of trade tensions.
  • Geopolitical tensions impacting on financial markets, supply chains and commodity prices.
  • Concerns over fiscal deficits and high debt leading to a surge in bond yields.

On the upside risks, it cited a stronger AI investment performance, impacting positively on productivity and business dynamism, and an easing of global trade tensions.

The IMF forecast was published just prior to President Trump threatened to apply 10 per cent tariffs on imports from France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland from February 1st and a further 15 per cent from 1st June if Greenland is not handed over. The EU is threatening to retaliate with possible tariffs on €93 billion worth of imports from the US. It is also threatening to utilise the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI).

The ACI Regulation was formulated in 2023 to protect the EU and its member states from economic coercion. Economic coercion is said to exist when a third country ‘applies or threatens to apply measures affecting trade or investment in order to prevent or obtain the cessation, modification or adoption of a particular act by the EU or a member state.’ The regulation enables the EU to act and would effectively shut off the US from large swathes of the single European market.

Thankfully, President Trump backed away from these threatened tariffs, but there is still a lack of certainty about what might happen next. An all-out trade war between the US and Europe would have very negative consequences for both regions, but this threat has dissipated for the moment.

Table 3: Global Economic Forecast (IMF)

REGION 2025 (Est) 2026f 2027f
World 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%
Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.8% 1.7%
Euro Area 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
Germany 0.2% 1.1% 1.5%
France 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Italy 0.5% 0.7% 0.7%
Spain 2.9% 2.3% 1.9%
Japan 1.1% 0.7% 0.6%
China 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%
India 7.3% 6.4% 6.4%
United Kingdom 1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
United States 2.1% 2.4% 2.0%

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, 19th January 2026

Interest Rates

The global downward trend in interest rates continued in 2025, although the ECB left its rates on hold in the second half, while the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25 per cent at each of the last three meetings of the year.

At the December 10th meeting, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25 per cent to a target range of between 3.5 per cent and 3.75 per cent. At that meeting, the Trump appointee voted for a cut of 0.5 per cent, while two regional Federal Reserve governors – Chicago and Kansas – voted for no change. President Trump has continued to be very critical of the Federal Reserve, and particularly its Chairman Jay Powell.

Powell’s tenure ends in May, and it seems likely that his successor will be a Trump loyalist. In the face of inflation that is still too high and a weakening labour market the Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act now. However, if a Trump-appointed Chairman decided to cut rates aggressively, financial market stability could be seriously tested.

The Bank of England cut rates 4 times during 2025, from 4.75 per cent to 3.75 per cent, with the last 0.25 per cent rate cut delivered on 18th December. This has taken rates down to the lowest level since 2022. The Bank of England is set to adopt a very cautious approach to further monetary easing, but the risk bias is still to the downside as the UK economy is still fundamentally weak.

The ECB left rates unchanged at its December meeting, and rates have now been on hold since the last cut in June. It appears likely that the ECB is now happy that it has rates at an appropriate level and is in no mind to alter rates in either direction for the foreseeable future. It will just monitor growth and inflation over the coming months before making any further interest rate decisions. An escalation of the trade situation between the EU and the US would likely prompt the ECB to cut rates further to support growth. This threat has been alleviated for the moment.

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Section 3: The Irish Economic Background

Economic Activity

Official growth data for the first nine months of 2025 show that GDP expanded by a very strong 15.8 per cent. However, GDP is not a reliable indicator of economic activity in an Irish context as it is grossly exaggerated by factors such as IP investment, repatriated profits, and aircraft leasing. Modified domestic demand is a more realistic indicator and it expanded by 4.1 per cent in the first nine months, with consumer spending on goods and services growing by 2.9 per cent.

Overall, the growth data suggest an economy that experienced solid growth in the first three quarters of the year.

Table 4: Economic Growth (Q1 - Q3 2025)

Economic Metric

Q1-Q3 2025 (YoY%)

Gross Domestic Product +15.8%
Consumer Expenditure +2.9%
Modified Final Domestic Demand +4.1%
Government Expenditure +3.9%
Investment +54.1%
Exports Goods & Services +11.8%
Imports Goods & Services +11.7%

Source: CSO PxStat

The Labour Market

The Irish labour market continued to perform strongly in 2025. In the year to the third quarter employment increased by 30,600 to reach a new high of 2.825 million. From quarter to quarter the sectoral employment levels can be quite volatile. In the third quarter, the ICT sector saw employment decline by 8,000, and accommodation & food services decline by 8,700. Both trends will need to be watched carefully going forward.

Table 5: Employment Changes

(000s) Q3 2024 Q3 2025 CHANGE
Total Employment 2794.8 2825.5 30.6
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 112.9 108.5 -4.4
Construction 176.3 177.6 1.3
Wholesale & retail trade 323.5 329.3 5.8
Transportation and storage 118.4 137.1 18.7
Accommodation and food service activities 200 191.3 -8.7
Information and communication 188.6 180.6 -8
Professional, scientific and technical activities 202.2 204.9 2.7
Administrative and support service activities 103.4 104.4 1
Public administration & defence, compulsory social security 153.6 143.2 -10.4
Education 228.2 234.6 6.4
Human health and social work activities 379.2 387.2 8
Industry 343.1 353.8 10.7
Financial, insurance and real estate activities 137 143.6 6.6
Other NACE activities 124.1 121 -3.1
Not stated 0 8.3 8.3

Source: CSO PxStat

Figure 2: Employment

Source: CSO PxStat

Despite the continued strength of the labour market, the growth in employment moderated as the year progressed, and the unemployment rate edged upwards. In December the unemployment rate stood at 5 per cent of the labour force, up from a rate of 4.5 per cent a year earlier. In December 2025, 148,700 people were officially unemployed, which is up 19,700 from a year earlier.

Foreign Direct Investment

In December the IDA reported its results for 2025. A record number of new investments were approved at 323, which is 14 per cent higher than in 2024. At the end of 2025, employment at IDA-supported companies reached 312,400, which is an increase of 1.5 per cent on 2024.

Inflation

The annual rate of inflation bottomed out at 1.7 per cent in July 2025 and subsequently accelerated to reach 3.2 per cent in November. It eased back to 2.8 per cent in December. The inflation rate averaged 2.2 per cent in 2025.

Figure 3: Annual Rate of Consumer Price Inflation

Source: CSO PxStat

Table 6 shows the evolution of consumer prices since December 2020. The average cost-of-living has increased sharply over the past 5 years, with average prices going up by 24.5 per cent. Food, rents, mortgages, electricity, gas, motor fuels, health insurance, and food & accommodation have seen significant increases over the period. This is the visible manifestation of the cost-of-living crisis that has become a hot political topic in Ireland and in most international economies over the past couple of years. Food was a major driver of price pressures during 2025.

Table 6: Evolution of Consumer Prices December 2020 to December 2025


Annual % Change (Dec 25) % Change Dec 20 to Dec 25
All items 2.8% 24.5%
Food 4.1% 26.6%
Clothing and footwear 5.7% 5.2%
Private rents 2.7% 37.7%
Mortgage interest 3.3% 86.2%
Electricity 4.7% 62.2%
Gas 1.2% 95.2%
Health 2.7% 10.2%
Motor cars -0.4% 24.4%
Petrol 0.3% 36.9%
Diesel 2.3% 48.4%
Restaurants, cafes and the like 3.6% 25.2%
Accommodation services 2.1% 42.6%
Hairdressing 4.6% 25.9%
Insurance connected with health 8.3% 34.0%
Motor car insurance 1.4% -5.0%

Source: CSO PxStat

Retail Sales

2025 was, in general, a reasonably challenging year for the retail sector. Consumer confidence weakened during the year in the face of cost-of-living pressures, tariff-related concerns, and the failure to deliver any tax concessions for workers in Budget 2026. In the first 11 months of the year, the volume of retail sales was 2.3 per cent ahead of the same period in 2024, and the value of sales expanded by 2.9 per cent. When the motor trade is excluded, the volume of sales increased by 1.4 per cent and the value of sales expanded by 2.1 per cent. This describes a modest retail sales environment.

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Merchandise Exports

In the first 11 months of 2025, merchandise exports were 18 per cent higher than the equivalent period in 2024. Food exports were 10.8 per cent higher, and pharmaceutical exports were 23.2 per cent higher. Exports to Great Britain were down by 6 per cent; exports to the EU-27 were down by 2.8 per cent; but exports to the US were up by 59.7 per cent, with pharmaceutical exports to the US up by 71.9 per cent.

A front-loading of exports has resulted in an easing of growth in the second half of the year, with pharmaceutical exports to Great Britain and the EU-27 weakening significantly. Pharmaceutical exports to Great Britain were down by 22 per cent; and pharmaceutical exports to the EU-27 were down by 7.7 per cent.

Exports in November were 17per cent lower than November 2024. Overall exports to the US in November were down by 51 per cent, with pharmaceutical exports down by 61.3 per cent.

In the first 11 months of the year pharmaceutical exports accounted for 68.6 per cent of total Irish merchandise exports, with pharmaceutical exports to the US accounting for 55.2 per cent of this total. This is a significant concentration risk for Ireland and is the reason why the US approach to the pharmaceutical industry and corporation tax really does matter to Ireland.

Public Finances

In 2025, an Exchequer surplus of €7.1 billion was recorded. This compares to a surplus of €12.8 billion in 2024. When receipts arising from the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) Apple tax ruling are excluded, the underlying Exchequer position in 2025 was a surplus of €3.8 billion, compared to €1.8 billion in 2024. In 2025, €1.7 billion was received from the CJEU ruling, compared to €10.9 billion in 2024.

Tax revenues totalled €107.4 billion in 2025, which was €628 million (0.6 per cent) lower than in 2024. However, when once-off tax revenues arising from the CJEU ruling are excluded from 2024 and 2025, underlying tax receipts of €105.7 billion were up by €8.6 billion or 8.9 per cent compared to 2024.

  • Income tax receipts totalled €36.6 billion, which is €1.5 billion or 4.3 per cent higher than in 2024. This reflects the ongoing strength of employment and solid growth in wages.
  • VAT receipts totalled €22.9 billion, which is €1.1 billion, or 5.1 per cent higher than in 2024. This reflects solid growth in consumer spending.
  • Excluding the CJEU receipts, corporation tax receipts of €32.9 billion were collected in 2025, which was €4.8 billion or 17.2 per cent ahead of 2024. €1.7 billion was collected from the CJEU ruling in 2024.

Gross voted government expenditure totalled €109.4 billion in 2025, which was €5.7 billion or 5.5 per cent higher than in 2024. Of this total, gross voted current expenditure was €92.9 billion, which was 4.3 per cent or €3.8 billion ahead of 2024. Gross voted capital expenditure totalled €16.5 billion, which was 12.7 per cent or €1.9 billion ahead of 2024.

Table 7: Tax Revenues (2025)


€m YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%) YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (€m) % TOTAL
Income Tax 36,573 +4.3% 1,502 34.0%
VAT 22,942 +5.1% 1,107 21.4%
Corporation Tax 32,942 +17.2% 4,827 30.7%
CJEU Ruling (Apple Tax) 1,726 - - 1.6%
Excise 6,464 +3.0% 189 6.0%
Stamps 1,898 +12.0% 203 1.8%
Capital Gains Tax 2,138 +25.3% 432 2.0%
Capital Acquisitions Tax 1,121 +31.2% 267 1.0%
Customs 616 +3.8% 23 0.6%
Motor Tax 926 -0.2% 0 0.9%

Other Property Taxes

51 - 49 0.0%
Total 107,397 -0.6% -628 100.0%

Source: Department of Finance Fiscal Monitor, January 6th, 2026

Household Finances

The household balance sheet is in a very healthy situation. Central bank data show that at the end of October, household deposits in the banking system stood at €170.1 billion, and household loans outstanding stood at €112.3 billion. The household balance sheet has been dramatically deleveraged since the economic and financial crash in 2008. From the perspective of savers, the opportunity cost of having so much money on extremely low yielding deposits in the banking system is very significant. It reflects a significant level of risk aversion. This is a legacy of the crash in 2008.

Figure 4: Household Balance Sheet

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

New Car Registrations

The new car market performed reasonably well in 2025, but the main story was the strong rebound in EV sales and the ongoing decline of petrol and diesel sales.

New car registrations at 124,954 were 3 per cent higher than in 2024. Petrol cars were down by 14.6 per cent; Diesel cars were down by 23 per cent; Petrol-Electric Hybrid cars were up by 10.8 per cent; Petrol Plug-in Electric Hybrid cars were up by 52.5 per cent; and Electric Vehicles were up by 35.2 per cent and accounted for 18.9 per cent of the new car market.

Table 8: New Car Registrations by Engine Type (2025)

ENGINE TYPE NUMBER % YEAR-ON-YEAR % MARKET
Petrol 31,376 -14.6% 25.1%
Diesel 21,351 -23.0% 17.1%
Petrol-Electric (Hybrid) 28,095 +10.8% 22.5%
Electric 23,601 +35.2% 18.9%
Petrol Plug-In Electric Hybrid 18,521 +52.5% 14.8%
Diesel-Electric (Hybrid) 1,597 +7.5% 1.3%
Diesel Plug-In Electric Hybrid 413 +5.4% 0.3%
Total 124,954 +3.0% 100.0%

Source: SIMI Motorstat

At the beginning of the year, it is difficult to predict what the market might look like in 2026 but based on the assumption of another stable year for the Irish economy, new car registrations are projected to increase by around 3 per cent to reach 128,700 in 2026. Such an outcome would still be 12.2 per cent lower than the level achieved in 2016.

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Section 4: The Economic Outlook for 2026

2026 is likely to be dominated by global geo-political uncertainty and volatility, as was the case in 2025.

The International

Looking ahead to 2026, the general expectation from forecasting agencies is that global growth will be slightly weaker than 2025, largely reflecting the impact of tariffs.

It is the nature of shocks that we can rarely predict them with any degree of certainty, but based on what we know now, the key issues to watch over the coming year include:

  • The AI investment boom that is propelling the ‘magnificent seven’ stocks to new highs might run out of steam. In other words, if there was to be a re-evaluation of the return on investment in AI, this could lead to a significant correction in equity markets. Many analysts believe that AI has generated a bubble in markets, but few have any confidence about when or if it might burst. Watch this space.
  • The tariff threat has not gone away as evidenced by the Greenland-related threats, and the most recent threat to increase tariffs on some goods from South Korea from 15 per cent to 25 per cent.
  • Bond market volatility driven by fiscal deficits in countries such as the US, France, and the UK. The bond market is the most important and influential market of all. The appointment of the next Head of the Federal Reserve in May will be interesting. A poor choice could generate considerable financial market volatility. In countries with high fiscal deficits such as France, Italy, the UK, and the US, domestic politics are rendering it virtually impossible to tackle those deficits. This could generate periodic bouts of nervousness in bond markets.
  • The relationship between China and Taiwan and the strategic importance of Taiwan as a global supplier of chips.
  • The Russian reaction to ongoing EU support for Ukraine.
  • The requirement to increase defence spending everywhere, but the EU in particular.
  • Growing anti-immigrant sentiment around the world. From an economic and business perspective immigration is essential for many countries, but it does complicate the provision of housing and is increasingly eliciting a negative backlash in many countries.
  • The relationship between the US and Venezuela, and the possible implications for other Latin American countries and Greenland.
  • The increasing sophistication of cyber terrorism, which AI is driving.
  • More extreme weather events and the increasing move away from climate change policies.
  • There are several important elections in 2026, but the US mid-term elections on November 3rd will attract most attention. In other countries where important elections are being held, such as Japan, Sweden, Israel, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and local elections in the UK, the performance of more extreme political actors will be watched with interest.

As was the case in 2025, most of the risks to the global economy in 2026 revolve around global politics. The AI bubble looks like the most significant financial/economic risk.

The Domestic

As we move into 2026, the momentum in the Irish economy is still solid, but there are several relevant considerations for the year ahead and beyond.

Fiscal Vulnerabilities

At the end of 2025, the Department of Finance published a report outlining Ireland’s fiscal vulnerabilities. In 2024:

  • 88 per cent of tax revenues flowed from VAT, Income Tax and Corporation Tax.
  • 57 per cent of corporation tax derived from 10 multinationals.
  • Manufacturing accounted for one third of corporation tax and is 97.6 per cent multinational.
  • ICT accounted for one fifth of corporation tax and is 99.7 per cent multinational.
  • Finance accounted for one seventh of corporation tax and is 84.2 per cent multinational.
  • The top 10 per cent of income earners contributed 40 per cent of income tax and 60 per cent of USC.

Ireland has an inordinate dependence on foreign-owned companies in terms of corporation and income tax receipts. This is why what President Trump says and does really does matter; why investment in all forms of infrastructure is essential; and why Ireland needs to preserve its status as a good country in which to do business. That is now under considerable pressure.

The Irish Consumer

For the Irish consumer, the key economic and financial trends that impacted on their lives in 2025 included a further decline in interest rates; a continuation of the savings habit as demonstrated by the €170 billion sitting on deposit in the banking system earning negative real returns; very modest tax reliefs for workers stemming from Budget 2025; a further deterioration in the cost-of living situation, as demonstrated by inflation hitting 3.2 per cent in November, having hit a low of 1.7 per cent in July; and another very strong year for equity market investors.

Looking out to 2026, some of these trends will still be evident. The savings habit and risk averse behaviour should continue to characterise savers, and inflation will continue to eat away at real purchasing power. On the other hand, interest rates may fall modestly in 2026, but the ECB appears more likely to keep rates on hold. The real burden of tax for income tax- payers will increase following Budget 2026, which the ESRI estimates will reduce disposable incomes by 1.5 per cent in 2026. The cost of housing to buy or rent is likely to rise further, although the pace of increase should logically moderate. Around 800,000 employees are likely to be enrolled in the new pension scheme, which will increase costs for SMEs and undermine disposable incomes for those enrolled. Services such as health insurance, hairdressing, and eating out are likely to become even more expensive, despite the 9 per cent VAT rate in July.

The SME Sector

The operating environment for the SME sector is very challenging. In 2026, their cost environment will deteriorate further due to the increase in the minimum wage; the PRSI increase; auto-enrolment; and further energy cost rises are likely. Budget 2026 did little to provide support to the sector, with the reduced 9 per cent VAT rate not applicable until July 1st. It is essential that more support is given to the SME sector and that its real contribution to regional economic activity is fully appreciated.

The Outlook

The economy looks set to deliver another solid year in 2026, although some modest weakening of the labour market is likely. Growth of around 2.5 per cent in the real economy looks achievable, which would represent a solid outturn.

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Section 5: Sectoral Considerations for the Steel Sector

Construction Activity

In the first three quarters of 2025, the volume of output from the construction sector increased by 13.2 per cent. Within this overall performance:

  • Output of building (excluding Civil Engineering) increased by 12.4 per cent.
  • Output of residential declined by 2 per cent. The first quarter was very weak, but there was a strong rebound in subsequent two quarters.
  • Output of non-residential increased by 26.6 per cent.
  • Output of civil engineering increased by 16.8 per cent.

Figure 5: Volume of Output Construction Sector

Source: CSO

The Residential Market

The housing market remained strong in the first 11 months of 2025, with prices and rents continuing to rise strongly. Residential property price growth is easing in Dublin as affordability issues are impacting, while price growth remains more buoyant outside of Dublin.

In November:

  • National average residential property prices increased by 0.3 per cent compared to the previous month and increased by 6.6 per cent on an annual basis.
  • Average residential property prices outside of Dublin increased by 0.2 per cent compared to the previous month and increased by 7.9 per cent on an annual basis.
  • Average residential property prices in Dublin increased by 0.3 per cent compared to the previous month and increased by 5 per cent on an annual basis.
  • The national residential property price index in November 2025 was 23.9 per cent above its highest level at the peak of the property boom in April 2007. Dublin prices are 9.3 per cent higher than their February 2007 peak, and prices outside of Dublin are 26.2 per cent above their May 2007 peak.
  • CSO data show that private rents increased by 2.7 per cent in the year to December 2025. Between June 2012 and December 2025, average private rents increased by 129.2 per cent.

Figure 6: National Residential Property Price Index (Annual % Change)

Source: CSO

Having an adequate supply of suitable residential accommodation to buy or to rent is the most crucial element of Ireland’s economic competitiveness. It is currently undermining national competitiveness as prices and rents are at very elevated levels.

In the first nine months of 2025, new dwelling completions totalled 24,325, which was 13.1 per cent ahead of the same period in 2024. Ireland needs to be building at least 60,000 new units every year for at least a decade to bring the market back to equilibrium.

In the first nine months of 2025, planning permissions totalled 26,766 and were 4.9 per cent per cent ahead of the same period in 2024. In the first nine months of the year, houses accounted for 59 per cent of total planning permissions, and apartments accounted for 41 per cent.

The failure to deliver adequate supply is attributed to several factors. These include:

Inadequate water & sewerage infrastructure. Uisce Éireann has warned that there will be no capacity for any new homes to be connected to the wastewater infrastructure by 2028 if a key wastewater treatment plant is not delivered.

  • Utility connection delays.
  • Planning delays and objections.
  • A shortage of zoned and serviced land.
  • Financing of development.

The demand for housing will only strengthen as the population continues to expand and as the demand backlog continues to build up.

Agriculture

2025 was generally a good year for the farming sector. Favourable weather and higher output prices for much of the year contributed. The advanced estimates from the CSO (subject to revision) suggest that the Agricultural Operating Surplus increased by 19.2 per cent in 2025, taking it to €5.1 billion. This follows an increase of 58.1 per cent in 2024 and a decline of 43.1 per cent in 2023. The value of agricultural output increased by 9.3 per cent in 2025. Cattle prices increased by 43 per cent; milk prices increased by 4 per cent; and lamb prices increased by 9 per cent.

Input prices stabilised during 2025, while output prices rose strongly in the first 8 months of the year, but then declined, largely due to milk prices.

The farming environment is positive currently, but output prices and incomes have become much more volatile in recent years. Dairy farmers are under some pressure due to a sharp decline in milk prices in the final quarter. The extension to the derogation on the Nitrates Directive has brought greater certainty and farmers are likely to continue to invest in farm machinery and buildings.

Figure 7: Agriculture Input & Output Prices

Source: CSO

Farm incomes are becoming more volatile due to volatile input and output prices, and more extreme and unpredictable weather conditions. Farmers are also challenged by environmental obligations and pressure to cut back output. However, there is still strong investment occurring at farm level caused by the need to keep cattle indoors longer, environmental obligations, and expansion by dairy farmers.

Input Costs for Construction Sector

Input costs for the construction sector have stabilised over the past couple of years. However, in November 2025, wholesale cement prices were 64 per cent higher than January 2021; wholesale prices for structural steel were 93.8 per cent higher; and wholesale prices for Structural Steel & Fabricated Metal were 102.3 per cent higher.

Figure 8: Wholesale Prices - Construction Sector

Source: CSO PxStat

Climate Change Agenda

The climate change agenda will continue to create significant demand for the services of the Irish steel industry. Ireland has an international commitment to achieve a 51 per cent reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, compared to 2018 levels, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. To achieve these targets, a multi-faceted approach will be required. This will involve the electrification of the transport fleet; the development of alternative energy sources, including solar, offshore and onshore wind and biogases; the retrofitting of homes, including solar panels; and the development of a significantly stronger charging infrastructure. This agenda will require significant public and private investment and will give a significant boost to economic activity, and the Irish steel industry. The climate change agenda in Europe will not diminish in importance despite what the Trump administration is doing.

Data Centres

The construction of data centres in Ireland is under considerable pressure due to planning difficulties and the energy consumed by the centres. There is some potential for data centre development on former peatlands owned by Bord na Móna, but the main opportunities are likely to come from abroad. There is significant growth in data centres in many countries such as Germany, Netherlands, the UK, Finland, Denmark and Sweden. Irish firms have expertise and experience in data centre construction and will be able to exploit business opportunities in those countries.

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Section 6: Issues for the Irish Steel Sector

The operating environment for the steel sector is challenging. The key challenges for the sector include:

  • The very uncertain global economic outlook and particularly the hit to business confidence and investment intentions.
  • Decarbonisation and the Green Steel transition.
  • Global overcapacity driven by weak demand and government-subsidised expansion. This has created significant price competition.
  • Volatile energy prices.
  • Volatile raw material prices.
  • Supply chain vulnerabilities.
  • Workforce challenges, with skills shortages and upward pressure on wages.
  • Digital transformation and the use of AI.
  • The deep uncertainty about the global trading order; the continued potential for a widespread and very damaging trade war; and the fact that come what may the world is ending up with a higher level of tariffs.

Apart from these general concerns, there are specific issues that need to be considered.

The Eu Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (cbam)

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is an EU instrument for preventing carbon leakage, that is, shifting of the production of goods to non-EU countries where there is a lower or no carbon cost associated with their production. The mechanism is applied to so-called CBAM goods imported to the EU from outside the EU and specified in an EU Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/956 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 10th May 2023 establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism). It is part of the EU "Fit for 55" Package.

The objective of the mechanism is for the prices of certain goods imported into the EU to reflect more accurately their carbon content. The CBAM also aims to encourage third countries, foreign producers, and EU importers to reduce their emissions.

The CBAM commenced in its transitional phase as of 1st October 2023. Only reporting obligations arose during the Transitional Period (1st October 2023 to 31st December 2025). The Definitive phase of CBAM commenced on 1st January 2026. Under the amended CBAM Regulation, a single mass-based threshold of 50 tonnes per calendar year has been introduced (Article 2(3a), Regulation (EU) 2025/2083). The new De-minimis rule applies to imports of all CBAM goods except hydrogen and electricity.

Importers whose cumulative annual imports of CBAM goods exceed this threshold must obtain the status of authorised CBAM declarant before importing CBAM goods for release for free circulation from 2026. Importers must submit CBAM authorisation applications before 31st March 2026 and will be allowed to continue importing CBAM goods pending the authorisation decision. An application for authorisation to become a CBAM importer must be submitted before the cumulative threshold of 50 tonnes is exceeded.

The obligations imposed by the CBAM apply to all who import more than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods (excluding hydrogen and electricity) per calendar year as outlined in Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (as amended). Imports mean any imports to EU from outside the EU (i.e. third countries)

CBAM goods are listed in Annex 1 to the CBAM Regulation by their CN code. The following sectors are included:

  • Iron and Steel
  • Fertilisers
  • Aluminium
  • Cement.

It is possible to check if a CN Code falls under the scope of CBAM obligations by entering the CN Code and country of origin in the TARIC database.

In Ireland, the EPA is the National Competent Authority and Revenue (Customs Division) is the Customs Authority for this Regulation.

Eu Policy on Steel Imports

Steel is recognised as a material that is essential for the EU economy, including for its green transition and strategically important sectors such as defence. The EU steelmaking industry is the world's third largest producer, directly employing around 300,000 people and sustaining regional economies across member states.

The industry is currently facing significant pressure from unsustainable levels of global overcapacity, which is projected to grow to 721 million tonnes by 2027, more than five times the EU's annual consumption. This overcapacity, combined with trade-restrictive measures from third countries that limit imports into their markets, has made the EU market the primary recipient of global excess steel. This has led to increasing imports, low-capacity utilisation (67 per cent in 2024), high EU manufacturing costs, and ultimately threatens the industry's long-term ability to invest in decarbonisation.

The European Council has adopted its mandate to negotiate with the European Parliament on the regulation addressing the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity on the EU steel market. The new regulation is designed to replace the existing steel safeguard measure, which is due to expire on 30th June 2026. The Council’s mandate seeks to strike a balance that aims to maintain the necessary high level of protection for the European steel industry, which is vital to the EU’s economy and security, while introducing key flexibility and consideration for downstream steel users.

The Council's mandate maintains the core protective elements of the Commission’s proposal, notably the substantial reduction in import quotas (limiting tariff-free import volumes to 18.3 million tonnes a year, a reduction of 47 per cent compared to 2024 steel quotas) and the doubling of the out-of-quota duty to 50 per cent compared to 25 per cent under the current steel safeguard.

The rules on the administration of tariff quotas have been adjusted to ensure greater flexibility. Specifically, the Council has allowed for unused tariff quota volumes in one quarter to be carried over to the next quarter within the same yearly period of application of the tariff rate quota.

The Commission can, via a delegated act, adjust tariff quota volumes, considering the EU interest and a series of elements. The Council clarified that the total value of these adjusted quotas must be capped to remain between 15.2 and 22.2 million tonnes.

To avoid circumvention and increase supply chain transparency, the regulation requires importers to provide evidence of the country of melt and pour. The Council introduced significant clarifications regarding its implementation:

  • The requirement for importers to provide evidence on the country of melt and pour will apply from 1st October 2026.
  • Within 2 years, the Commission will have to assess whether to designate the country of melt-and-pour as the basis for country-specific tariff quota allocations. If the Commission concludes that it is necessary to do so, it will present a new legislative proposal to that effect.

Once the European Parliament adopts its position, the co-legislators will start negotiations with a view to finalising the work on the text. The regulation will enter into force once adopted by both institutions and published in the official journal.

In response to the proposals, Irish Steel made a strong submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Ireland is unique within the EU in that it has:

• No domestic primary steelmaking capacity.

• No large-scale re-rolling mills.

• A market comprised almost entirely of imported steel products from within and outside the EU.

• The UK post-Brexit is now a third-country source subject to quotas and duties.

• The EU internal market (limited volumes from continental stockholders), and

• Direct imports from Turkey, India, and Asia (critical for plate, hollow section, and rebar).

As such, any reduction in import quotas or an increase in tariff levels immediately constrains supply, inflates prices, and undermines competitiveness in downstream sectors such as fabrication, construction, and mechanical engineering.

A 47 per cent quota reduction and 50 per cent out-of-quota tariff would effectively slash available supply and inflate steel prices by 20–35 per cent within months.

Irish Steel believes that the consequences could be severe:

  • Leading to material shortages for S355, hollow sections, and plate — especially for structural fabricators who rely on imported stock.
  • Lead times could double (8–12 weeks) as EU stockholders prioritise domestic customers.
  • Margin erosion: With 25–35 per cent material cost inflation, fixed-price contracts (public works, housing, data centres) become unviable.
  • Certainty risk: EN 1090 CE marking relies on traceable EU/UK-sourced material.
  • The “Melt & Pour” rule could invalidate non-EU mill certificates, forcing requalification.

Along with that the consequences for Distributors / Stockholders will be critical and will lead to:

  • Reduced quota volumes mean less flexibility to import bulk tonnages.
  • 50 per cent out-of-quota tariff will make speculative stockholding impossible.
  • Price volatility: Expect weekly price swings as importers time shipments within quota
  • windows.
  • Stock depletion risk: Irish stockists could run dry in Q3 each year once quotas are used up, similar to 2021 safeguard cycles but far worse.

The Construction & Engineering Sector will be impacted as follows:

  • Structural steel costs (beam, column, plate) could rise €250–€400 per tonne, pushing tender prices up by 8–12 per cent.
  • Project viability: Public infrastructure budgets (Transport, Housing) could face cost
  • overruns or delays.
  • Increased competition for EU-origin steel may push Irish buyers to the back of the queue due to smaller order volumes.

Government & Policy Implications:

  • The Trade Policy Unit will come under pressure to seek country-specific exemptions or quota flexibility for small import-dependent markets like Ireland.
  • If no adjustment, Irish firms may argue for state aid / cost compensation mechanisms to offset
  • unfair competitive disadvantage.
  • Could distort competition between Irish and mainland EU fabricators, with Irish firms facing higher landed costs.

Longer-Term Strategic Implications:

  • Deindustrialisation risk: Small fabricators unable to absorb price shocks may close or
  • consolidate.
  • Reduced competitiveness: Irish steelwork may be priced out of UK or EU tenders.
  • Supply chain fragility: If UK and EU both restrict imports, Ireland is geographically
  • stranded between two quota-constrained markets.
  • CBAM overlap: Combined with CBAM reporting (for non-EU imports), admin burden and compliance costs will multiply.

In Summary:

Fabricators will face material shortages, higher costs, contract risk.

Stockholders / importers will see quota cuts, 50 per cent duty, and price volatility.

The Construction sector will witness Tender cost inflation & delays.

Processors / re-roller companies will experience origin rule issues, reduced flexibility.

Policy / trade relations will see a need for exemptions or aid.

Long-term competitiveness will experience deindustrialisation risk, reduced export capability.

In Conclusion, if implemented without special provisions for small import-dependent economies, Irish Steel believes that the proposed measures would be among the most damaging trade policy changes for Irish steel in two decades — more disruptive than Brexit or CBAM. Ireland’s position as a non-producing, small-volume importer means it would bear the brunt of reduced quotas and higher duties — while larger EU markets with domestic production (Germany,Italy, Spain, France) are relatively protected.

The EU has just agreed a free trade agreement with India. Exports of steel and iron to India will now attract zero per cent tariff. Previously this tariff was up to 22 per cent.

Pension Auto-enrolment

Pension Auto-Enrolment (AE) commenced on 1st January 2026.

Table 9: Main Features of Auto-Enrolment - Contributions

Year

Employee

Employer

Bonus Incentive

Total Contribution

Applied to

2026-2028 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 3.5% Full Gross pay
2029-2031 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% Full gross pay
2032-2034 4.5% 4.5% 1.5% 10.5% Full gross pay
2035+ 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 14.0% Full gross pay

Employees aged between 23 and 60 who are earning more than €20,000 per annum are included in the scheme, unless they are making ongoing PRSA or occupational pension contributions via payroll. Employees not in a PRSA or occupation pension who are outside the age and earnings parameters can opt in to AE.

Employees who are Class S PRSI contributors, typically company owners or directors; and employees who have pension contributions to a PRSA or occupational scheme recorded via their payroll software or payslip, whether the contribution is from employee, employer or both; and the self-employed and unemployed are not included in the AE scheme.

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Section 7: Spotlight on Irish Steel Member

Profast Group Logo

In this edition we profile a member of Irish Steel, Profast Group. It is based on an interview with CEO Stephen Clarke.

Stephen Clarke, CEO of Profast Group

The Profast Group

The Profast Group was formed in Ballymena in 1956. It has been a trusted name in the structural steel industry for 70 years, supplying high-performance fasteners, fixings, and connection solutions. These solutions range from stainless steel fixings to specialist structural steel connections. The company has earned a strong reputation for quality, reliability, technical expertise, and finding solutions to customer problems.

The Group has changed ownership three times through management buyouts, with the most recent occurring two years ago. This has ensured that the knowledge base has been preserved, which most likely not have been the case if the company had been acquired by private equity.

The Profast Group consists of three entities:

  • Profast NI is based in Belfast. It serves the Northern Ireland and Great Britain markets.
  • Profast Limited is based in Dublin and serves the Irish and European markets.
  • Fortus Hardware is based in Belfast and is a leading distributor for window and door hardware in the UK and Ireland.
The Profast Group team at an industry exhibitionProfast Group van on a construction site

The Group has significantly diversified its geographic markets over the years and serves the UK, Ireland, and many EU markets, including Germany, Italy, Denmark, and Sweden. It seeks to support other Irish companies operating in those markets. Its company structure has ensured that it has not been affected by Brexit.

Initially it supplied stainless steel fixings to several large Original Equipment (OEM) manufacturers. However, it has diversified from being one of the biggest structural steel component suppliers across the Island of Ireland to the mechanical, electrical and plumbing, and the data centre boom. The company also services a lot of the OEM sector such as the manufacturers of stone crushing machines, and civil engineering projects.

Innovation and agility characterise the ethos within the company. It strives to provide the best solutions to its customers, taking into consideration sustainable builds, ESG and EPD initiatives, which seeks to deliver the most eco-friendly solution. Under the leadership of CEO Stephen Clarke, the company has a strong growth mindset and is heavily driven by a belief that every crisis provides an opportunity. Clarke believes that the challenges facing the general industry include succession planning; CEBAM; the new rules to protect EU steel industry from global overcapacity; and the elevated costs of doing business, including the higher national insurance contributions in the UK, the increase in the national minimum wage and the auto-enrolment pension scheme in Ireland.

The vision of the company is to create a stronger and more secure world, through connecting customers to market leading products and services. It provides a ground up solution to its customers. Innovation is at the heart of what the company is about and is now looking seriously at the potential of AI to help the business internally, and most importantly to improve the customer experience.

The career path of CEO Clarke began in mechanical engineering and was strengthened by a master’s degree in international business. Over the years, he has gained extensive experience across Ireland, the UK, Europe, the United States, and the Middle East — supporting SMEs and blue-chip companies alike to grow and succeed. Successfully completing a management buyout of Profast Group was a defining moment, allowing him to honour an incredible legacy while leading the business into its next chapter.

Stephen Clarke is an active member of the Institute of Directors and the Timoney Leadership community, where he continues to refine his approach to governance, leadership, and building sustainable businesses. Since October 2025 he has been Vice Chairman of BIAFD (British and Irish Association of Fastener Distributors).

His focus is quite clear:

  • Leading with culture and strategy at the core.
  • Empowering people to grow and succeed.
  • Driving innovation to deliver lasting impact.
  • Building not just structures, but a business, a culture, and a legacy that lasts for generations.

This publication is based on data available up to and including January 27th, 2026.

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Section 8: CBAM Extras

Sustainability, GHG Reporting and CBAM Implications for the Irish Steel Sector

Purpose of this Report

This report provides an integrated analysis of sustainability reporting requirements, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting (Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3), and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), contextualised specifically for the Irish steel sector. It is intended to complement existing economic and market analysis by clarifying regulatory obligations, emerging risks, and strategic implications for Irish steel importers, stockholders, fabricators, and downstream users.

1. Sustainability Reporting Context (EU and Ireland)

The policy environment facing the Irish steel sector is increasingly shaped by mandatory sustainability and climate-related reporting requirements at EU level. These requirements extend well beyond voluntary ESG disclosures and are now embedded in binding corporate reporting obligations.

Under the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), large companies and listed SMEs are required to disclose detailed sustainability information, including climate-related risks, transition plans, and greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel, the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) has developed the Voluntary Sustainability Reporting Standard for SMEs (VSME), which is intended to provide a proportionate and practical sustainability reporting framework for non-listed SMEs. These disclosures are governed by the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS), with climate reporting addressed primarily under ESRS E1 (Climate Change).

Although many Irish steel fabricators, distributors, and importers may fall outside the direct scope of CSRD due to company size, they are increasingly affected indirectly. In the Irish context, the VSME framework is likely to become the most relevant reference point for SMEs, offering a structured yet simplified approach to reporting on climate, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions that aligns with CSRD and ESRS expectations without imposing disproportionate administrative burden. This is because their customers — including construction firms, infrastructure developers, data centre operators, and multinational clients — are required to report full value-chain emissions and will therefore seek verified environmental data from their suppliers.

As a result, sustainability reporting requirements are becoming a commercial condition of market access rather than a purely regulatory issue.

2. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

Overview

CBAM is an EU policy instrument designed to prevent carbon leakage by ensuring that imported goods face a carbon cost equivalent to that borne by EU producers under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). It applies to specific carbon-intensive goods imported into the EU from third countries, including iron and steel, aluminium, cement, and fertilisers.

Phases of CBAM

  • Transitional Phase (1 October 2023 – 31 December 2025):
    • Reporting obligations only
    • No financial payments required
  • Definitive Phase (from 1 January 2026):
    • Mandatory purchase and surrender of CBAM certificates
    • Emissions-based financial liability

A de minimis threshold of 50 tonnes per calendar year applies to most CBAM goods (excluding hydrogen and electricity).

Irish Context

In Ireland, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) acts as the National Competent Authority, while Revenue (Customs Division) is responsible for enforcement at the border. Importers exceeding the threshold must be authorised CBAM declarants and are responsible for emissions reporting and certificate surrender.

3. CBAM as a GHG Reporting Mechanism

While CBAM is often discussed primarily as a trade or cost issue, it also functions as a mandatory emissions reporting regime. Importers must collect, calculate, and submit verified data on the embedded greenhouse gas emissions of imported goods.

In effect, CBAM operationalises Scope 3 emissions accounting for importers by:

  • Requiring emissions data at product level
  • Penalising the use of default values where primary data is unavailable
  • Linking emissions intensity directly to financial cost

This represents a significant shift from voluntary Scope 3 disclosures towards regulated, auditable emissions data.

4. Strategic and Commercial Implications for the Irish Steel Sector

Importers and Stockholders

  • Increased administrative and compliance burden
  • Exposure to CBAM certificate price volatility
  • Competitive disadvantage relative to EU-based producers
  • Heightened importance of supplier emissions data quality

Fabricators and EN 1090-Certified Firms

  • Increased pressure to provide verified emissions data to customers
  • Risk of material shortages and price volatility
  • Contract risk for fixed-price public and private projects

Construction, Infrastructure and Engineering Clients

  • Rising material costs driven by CBAM and trade measures
  • Increased scrutiny of embodied carbon in tenders
  • Greater reliance on low-carbon material sourcing strategies

7. Long-Term Outlook

Taken together, sustainability reporting requirements, Scope 1–2–3 GHG accounting, and CBAM represent a structural shift in how carbon is measured, priced, and managed in the steel value chain. For Ireland, as a small, import-dependent economy with no domestic primary steelmaking capacity, these changes present particular risks.

However, they also create opportunities for:

  • Early investment in emissions data capability
  • Strategic supplier engagement
  • Carbon-informed procurement
  • Differentiation based on transparency and compliance readiness

The ability of the Irish steel sector to adapt to this evolving framework will be a key determinant of its long-term competitiveness, resilience, and role in the low-carbon transition.

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Section 9: The Current UK Steel Market Evaluation

23 February 2026 — Credit to All Steels Trading Ltd

Four months have passed since our last market update, and the first wave of price increases has unfolded largely as forecast. During this period, EU and UK mills have implemented combined merchant bar increases of £40 per tonne, with hollow sections and structural sections rising by £50 per tonne.

We are now approaching one of the most significant structural shifts our industry has seen in recent years. The UK Trade Remedies Authority and government ministers are currently considering stronger protectionist measures to replace the existing UK Safeguards, which are scheduled to expire at the end of June 2026. Industry speculation suggests that import quota volumes could be reduced by as much as 50%, with duties on volumes exceeding the revised quotas potentially increasing from 25% to 50%.

If implemented, such measures would materially reshape supply dynamics and pricing across the whole market.

CBAM and UK Pricing

During the current quarter, we have also seen the implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on imports into the European Union. Although CBAM currently applies only to EU trade, it is already contributing to firmer UK steel prices for two key reasons:

  • EU steel producers must now account for the carbon cost of certain imported raw materials and inputs captured under CBAM, including pig iron, direct-reduced iron, scrap, ferro-alloys, slabs and billets, as well as imports of electricity and hydrogen. These additional carbon compliance costs inevitably need to be recovered through finished steel pricing.
  • Imported steel products entering the EU, such as merchant bar, sections and hollow sections, are all subject to CBAM reporting and associated carbon cost adjustments. As EU market prices adjust upward to reflect this, EU mills have little incentive to divert supply to the UK market at lower prices, particularly when doing so incurs higher transportation costs.

Beyond CBAM, underlying raw material, energy and transportation costs have continued to rise globally. As with carbon-related charges, these increases must ultimately be reflected in finished steel prices.

Supply and Demand

It is fair to say that there has been no meaningful improvement in underlying demand to date. However, with UK interest rates expected to continue easing, this should help stimulate construction activity and support a gradual recovery. Encouragingly, government-funded infrastructure projects are beginning to gather pace across energy, utilities, road, rail and defence. Increased progress in these sectors should, in time, translate into stronger steel demand. At the same time, tightening supply conditions have become increasingly apparent, adding further support to the current pricing environment.

Merchant Bar

7-Steel is currently undertaking a major utility installation project, which will take them out of production for approximately 4–5 weeks. This coincides with existing stock shortages across many popular sizes, further constraining near-term availability. Continental suppliers are also reporting multiple stock outages and are restricting sales to short-term rolling windows, in anticipation of further price increases over the coming months.

In addition, Turkish import quotas in the UK were exhausted on 1st January 2026. As a result, any newly arrived material is now held in bond pending clearance under the next quota window, further limiting immediate supply to the market.

Hollow Sections

Tata Tubes experienced a production shutdown in January 2026 due to a serious health and safety incident and are reportedly still encountering commissioning difficulties with their new mill. In addition, Turkish import quotas were exhausted earlier this month, meaning any newly arrived material must either be held in bond pending the next quota window or cleared with payment of the 25% import duty.

Traditional high-volume supply from Italian producer Padana has also eased. The company has been significantly impacted by sharply inflated flat-rolled raw material costs, driven by the EU CBAM framework and its effect on upstream pricing. Furthermore, announcements from ArcelorMittal signal an ambition to achieve €700 per tonne pricing by 1st April 2026, reinforcing the upward trend in raw material and finished steel values.


This article is credited to All Steels Trading Ltd, Vulcan House, York Road, Thirsk, North Yorkshire, YO7 3BT, United Kingdom.

Email: laurencem@allsteelstrading.co.uk | Website: www.allsteelstrading.co.uk

Jim Power

Written by

Jim Power

Special Economics Advisor

Jim Power is an independent economist who provides economic analysis and commentary for Irish Steel. He is a regular contributor to Irish media and has extensive experience in economic forecasting and policy analysis.

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